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May Not Know The Winners, But As For The Losers...

The Clinton and Obama spin teams will lobby the pundits on who “won” Super Tuesday. Both sides have a case to make. Many things in this election cycle remain unclear.

One thing that is clear is that there are some real “losers” this cycle.

 Loser # 1: The Pollsters:
In year with more political money being spent than ever and interest up it should be high times for the pollsters.

 But they have been consistently wrong. One example: the double digit margin of error in the Zogby polls.  In a poll completed the day before the New Hampshire primary Zogby had Obama up by 13 percent – Clinton won by 3 percent. 

 In a poll completed the day before the California Super Tuesday primary Zogby had Romney at plus 7 percent and Obama at, once again, plus 13 percent. Romney lost to McCain by 8 percent in California and Obama lost to Hillary by 10 percent.

 After the Hillary “surprise” in New Hampshire pollster John Zogby appeared on “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart. The comedic Mr. Stewart asked pollster Zogby what went wrong. 

 I cut my political teeth as an 18 year old in 1980 working at the NBC News election unit in New York.  I may have been the first person in the country to know that Ronald Reagan had won Super Tuesday that year.  I was in the number 1 booth in the NBC phone bank at 30 Rock taking calls with key precinct results. These results would then be interpreted by such legendary election number crunchers as Dr Richard Scanlon and John Ellis.

 So I expected from John Zogby an explanation of how the turnout model proved to be different, the sample was wrong, the overwhelming percent of the Democrat electorate in New Hampshire being women, or some other data based explanation.  After all, these guys get the big bucks for collecting and interpreting election data.

 What John Zogby gave a stunned Jon Stewart and the nation was an “I don’t know.”

 At least he got that right.

 There are other losers such as Pat Robertson, Rudy Giuliani’s strategists, Dennis Kucinich’s hairdresser and Fox News for excluding Ron Paul…but those are entire columns in themselves.

 Dan Godzich is a veteran of numerous political campaigns including Bush-Quayle ’88 and he was the National Campaign Manager for Alan Keyes for President 2000.

 

 

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